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☆ A worldwide lithium shortage could come as soon as 2025
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe world could face a shortage for lithium as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025. BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, was among those that predict a lithium supply deficit by 2025. In a recently published report, BMI largely attributed the deficit to China's lithium demand exceeding that of its supply. "We expect an average of 20.4% year-on-year annual growth for China's lithium demand for EVs alone over 2023-2032," the report stated. While that could point to a global lithium surplus next year, shortages could start to plague supply chains in 2028.

Persons: Susan Zou, Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche, Blanchard, Zou Organizations: Sigma, Bloomberg, Getty, BMI, Fitch Solutions, Economic, Rystad Energy, P, Commodity, EV Locations: Itinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil, China, skyrocket, transportations, U.S, Europe

The total tax breaks will amount to 520 billion yuan, Vice Minister of Finance Xu Hongcai said at a press conference. The announcement follows a June 2 Cabinet meeting during which authorities said they would extend and optimise the tax exemption and study policies to promote NEV development. Analysts said the cap on the purchase tax exemption would help drive growth of cheaper models that are mainly produced by domestic firms rather than premium vehicles from foreign makers. NEV sales rose 10.5% in May from a month earlier, showed data from the China Passenger Car Association. The tax break was announced in 2014 and extended in 2017, 2020 and 2022.

Persons: Finance Xu Hongcai, Cui Dongshu, Li Auto, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Susan Zou, Qiaoyi Li, Liz Lee, Siyi Liu, Donny Kwok, Miyoung Kim, Christopher Cushing Organizations: China, Auto, Ministry of Finance, Finance, China Passenger Car Association, EV, HK, Reuters, Berkshire, Volkswagen, Analysts, Tesla, Rystad Energy, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, SHANGHAI, China, BYD, Beijing, Hong Kong

The total tax breaks will amount to 520 billion yuan, Vice Minister of Finance Xu Hongcai said at a press conference. The announcement follows a June 2 Cabinet meeting during which authorities said they would extend and optimise the tax exemption and study policies to promote NEV development. The tax break was announced in 2014 and extended in 2017, 2020 and 2022. NEV sales rose 10.5% in May from a month earlier, showed data from the China Passenger Car Association. They jumped 60.9% from a year earlier when COVID-19 curbs still roiled auto production and sales.

Persons: Finance Xu Hongcai, Cui Dongshu, Li Auto, Susan Zou, Qiaoyi Li, Liz Lee, Siyi Liu, Donny Kwok, Miyoung Kim, Christopher Cushing Organizations: China, Auto, Ministry of Finance, Finance, China Passenger Car Association, EV, HK, Reuters, Tesla, Rystad Energy, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, SHANGHAI, China, BYD, Beijing, Hong Kong

☆ China lithium price rebound to be capped by growing supply - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Production and sales of EVs in May grew by 53.7% and 71.2% respectively year-on-year, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed. Demand from the energy storage sector, the second biggest user of the battery metal, is also growing rapidly. "We are seeing the energy storage market is boosting capacity expansion of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries and cathode materials, which in turn sends pressure to the price of lithium carbonate," Zou said. Zou expects the lithium carbonate price in China to average 300,000 yuan a ton this year. "The May growth seen in the auto market, boosted by short-term policy support, is unlikely to last and lithium prices might fall below 200,000 yuan within this year," he added.

Persons: Price, Susan Zou, Zou, Yang Jing, Chen Junquan, Chen, Siyi Liu, Dominique Patton, Andrew Hayley, Emma Rumney Organizations: China Passenger Car Association, Cell, Rystad Energy, EV, Beijing, China Corporate Research, Fitch, Economic Research Institute, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, Shanghai

Rystad Energy sees the global market deficit of lithium shrinking to around 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) this year, from 76,000 tonnes LCE in 2022. Out to 2025 it expects lithium supply to grow on average by 34% a year against an annual demand growth rate of 25%. MINERS UNFAZEDThe decline in lithium prices in China, the world's biggest consumer, has hit lithium producers overseas. LITHIUM CARBONATE SINKSThe price decline has been sharp. "A lithium carbonate price of 200,000-300,000 yuan per tonne is where both upstream and downstream will feel comfortable," said Rystad's Zou.

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